In light of growing concerns over escalating natural disaster risks and persistently low fertility rates, this paper quantifies the causal impacts of tropical cyclones and identifies the pathways through which they influence childbearing decisions among Australians of reproductive age. Using an individual fixed effects model and exogenous variation in cyclone exposure, we find a robust and substantial decline in fertility, occurring only after the most severe category 5 cyclones, with the effect weakening as distance from the cyclone’s eye increases. We find no evidence of delayed cyclone effects, indicating that the fertility loss attributable to these most severe cyclones is permanent. Our findings are robust to extensive validity checks, including a falsification test and various randomization tests. The fertility decline is most pronounced among younger adults, individuals with lower educational attainment, those childless at baseline, and those lacking prior private health or residential insurance. While physical health, financial constraints, and migration appear unlikely to drive the effect, the evidence points to reduced family formation, increased marital breakdown, child mortality, cyclone-induced home damage, elevated psychological stress, and heightened risk perceptions as plausible mechanisms.
The findings presented in this study have important methodological and policy implications. Methodologically, the results underscore the value of employing individual-level panel data, where available, and using individual fixed effects models to estimate the effects of natural disasters on fertility. Failure to account for individual time-invariant unobserved factors may lead to an overestimation of the negative effect of cyclones on fertility by approximately 8%.
From a policy perspective, the robust evidence of a substantial negative impact of severe cyclones on fertility underscores the need for targeted interventions to support affected populations—particularly those who are disproportionately vulnerable. Moreover, our finding that Category 5 cyclones reduce family formation, increase family dissolution, cause home damage, and elevate psychological stress suggests that policies aimed at mitigating family breakdown, housing damage, and psychological distress may help alleviate the negative impacts of cyclones on fertility. Similarly, our finding that these severe cyclones increase insurance uptake—combined with the null effect of cyclones on the fertility of previously insured individuals—reinforces the importance of policies that promote broader insurance coverage as a means to buffer households against the adverse demographic consequences of natural disasters. Overall, these insights can inform the design of policies aimed at enhancing disaster resilience, mitigating long-term demographic consequences, and addressing the broader social and economic costs of extreme weather events.