Journal Article

Heritability of different measures of overconfidence

Published: 15 Aug 2025

Abstract

Incorrect estimation of own absolute and relative abilities is common and can have detrimental effects on a person’s educational, social, employment, and financial outcomes. It is not yet fully understood from where interpersonal differences in overconfidence emerge. In this paper, we estimate the heritability of two types of overconfidence, overestimation, and overplacement, in a sample of 1120 twins. We find that the genetic heritability of overestimation (overplacement) is about 19% (17%) and that most of the interindividual variation in overconfidence is due to individual-specific environmental factors.

DOI: 10.1017/esa.2025.10016

Authors

Centre Member

Agnieszka Tymula
Jacob Dooley

Centre Friend

Nathan Kettlewell

Partner Organisations

Life Course Centre

The University of Sydney

Citation

Dooley, J., Kettlewell, N., & Tymula, A. (2025). Heritability of different measures of overconfidence. Journal of the Economic Science Association, 1–8. https://doi.org/10.1017/esa.2025.10016